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Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen – Dan Heath

10th February 2025
upstream book cover

Review of Upstream

The author wants to convince us that we should move upstream at personal, organizational, national, and international levels. He says that we can and should stop dealing with the symptoms of problems, again and again, and start fixing them instead. I would like to learn to prevent problems.

Definition

Upstream efforts aim to prevent problems from happening or to systemically reduce the harm caused by those problems while downstream actions react to problems once they have occurred.

Downstream efforts are narrow and fast and tangible. Upstream efforts are broader, slower and hazier but they really work when they work which can accomplish massive and long-lasting good. Although upstream solutions are generally more desirable, they are also more complex and ambiguous.

3 barriers to upstream thinking

1. Problem blindness.

Problem blindness is best captured in this sentence: “That’s just how it is – so no one questions it”. It can be translated to “I don’t see the problem or the problem is inevitable”.


2. Lack of ownership

In essence, this means “that is not mine to fix”.


3. Tunneling

It confines us to the short-term, reactive thinking. In the tunnel, the only way is forward.


7 key questions to upstream efforts

1. How will you unite the right people?


2. How will you change the system?

Upstream work is about reducing the probability that problems will happen, and the work must culminate in systems change for that reason. To change the system is to change the rules that govern us or the culture that influences us.

Systems change starts with a spark of courage when a group of people unite around a common cause and demand change. The endgame is to eliminate the need for courage, to render it unnecessary, because it has forced change within the system. Success comes when the right things happen by default, not because of individual passion or heroism. Success comes when the odds have shifted.


3. Where can you find a point of leverage?

Every problem has its own array of factors that increase risk for or protect against it, and each factor is a potential leverage point.


4. How will you get early warning of the problem?


5. How will you know you are succeeding?

Use these tests (rising tides test, misalignment test, lazy bureaucrat test, and defiling-the-mission test) to eliminate wrong data collection.


6. How will you avoid doing harm?


7. Who will pay for what does not happen?

Reactive efforts succeed when problems happen and they are fixed. On the contrary, preventive efforts succeed when nothing happens. We can pay to fix problems once they happen or we can pay in advance to prevent them.


Other thoughts

Most people skew to reaction rather than prevention. But if we cannot systematically solve problems, it dooms us to stay in an endless cycle of reaction.

Making data useful for the front lines can be a daunting task but most of the times, grounding an effort in concrete data is the only way to unlock the solution to a major problem.

Specialisation creates great efficiencies but also deters efforts to integrate in new, advantageous ways.

Conclusion

When years are spent to respond to problems, the fact that they can be prevented can be overlooked. To succeed upstream, we need to detect problems early, target leverage points in complex systems, find reliable ways to measure success, pioneer new ways of working together, and embed their success into systems to give them permanence.

We cannot help a thousand people or a million, until we understand how to help one. We need to see a problem up close to understand a problem. Do not obsess about formulating the perfect solution before begin work; take ownership of the underlying problem and start slogging forward.

In Upstream, the author uses a few case studies to illustrate his points. If others can do it, everyone should be able to do it if we are willing to invest our energy and time. The fruits of our labour in doing upstream work may not be immediate as it takes time for the efforts to bear fruit. Nonetheless, it does not mean that it is not worth it. On the contrary, if no one wants to tackle the issue, the problem will be there forever and will affect future generations. We should think of upstream work as making the world better for the future generations and let them have one thing less to worry about.

One-sentence summary for Upstream

To permanently solve a problem, it is necessary to tackle it upstream.

Quotes

  1. Good intentions guarantee nothing.
  2. Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets.
  3. The seed of improvement is dissatisfaction.
  4. Systems are machines that determine probabilities.
  5. When everything is cause for alarm, nothing is cause for alarm.

Rating

3 out of 3 stars

Interested in Upstream?

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